Is It 1976 Again?
I’m trying to figure out how someone using math to predict a baseball season is newsworthy.
A New Jersey professor, using a mathematical formula to foretell the
outcome of games, predicts a three-way tie in the National League East
Professor Bruce Bukiet, of the mathematical sciences department at
the New Jersey Institute of Technology, developed a formula in 2000 to
predict game results. As the season gets under way Sunday, his formula
sees the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies,
the New York Mets (which Bukiet admits is his favorite team) and the
Atlanta Brave will each win 88 games and tie for the NL East title.
Bukiet’s formula says the Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim should easily win their divisions.
The New York Yankees, predicted to win 99 games, were a two-game
favorite over the Boston Red Sox in the AL East and the Cleveland
Indians were installed as the team to beat in the AL Central.
“These results are merely a guide as to how teams ought to perform.
There are many unknowns, especially trades, injuries and how rookies
will perform,” Bukiet said. “Over the years, the predictions have been
about as good as those of the so-called experts. It demonstrates how
useful math can be in understanding so many aspects of the world around
So many unknowns. Like how rookies will perform. It’s a head-scratcher.